The Census, Re-apportionment, and the Immigration Debate

November 19, 2009 - Posted by Maurice Belanger

One undercurrent to the year-to-year political shenanigans that play out in Congress around the immigration issue is the demographic change that is occurring in the country, officially measured every 10 years by the decennial census.  There is a census coming up, in just over four months, and our friends over at America’s Voice have just published a report giving us a little preview on the impact that the growth of the Latino population will have on the number of representatives in Congress that states will have once representation is adjusted to account for population shift that has occurred in the past 10 years.

The report projects that Latinos are responsible for 51% of the growth of the U.S. population since the last census in 2000.

While there are states that will gain representation largely due to the growth in their Latino population, perhaps the more interesting projection is that, in states that are losing population, growth in the Latino population of those states has stemmed their overall population decline. 

At the same time that the Latino population is growing in many parts of the country, a trend that is now several decades old continues: Northeast “rust-belt” states (also: cold-winter states) are losing population to sun-belt states, as their population ages and retires, or looks for economic opportunities elsewhere.   Latino in-migration is countering some of this loss.  Three of the states, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and New Jersey, would have lost population were it not for the growth in their Latino population.  Louisiana will register a population decline, but that decline has been mitigated by growth in the Latino population.

What impact might these population shifts have on the immigration debate?

It is expected that eight states will gain representation in Congress, while eleven states will lose.  However, even in states where the growth in the Latino population will lead to more representation for the state, the political influence of Latinos will be mitigated by the politics of re-districting.  New congressional districts will be drawn to account for the re-distribution of the population.  In most states, the drawing of new districts is controlled by the state legislature, and the party in power tends to draw districts in such a way as to include a majority of voters that will vote for the party in power.  As the report notes,

“Republicans are poised to control the redistricting process in most of the states poised to gain seats in the U.S. House.” 

Given that, in recent years, Latinos have become more Democratic, we can expect that districts will be drawn to dilute the Latino vote in many of these states.  This gerrymandering, however, can only go so far.  As the report notes:

When drawing new Congressional borders following the 2000 Census, the Republican-controlled Texas legislature “moved” 100,000 citizens from the majority Latino Congressional District 23 to Congressional District 25 in order to protect a District 23 incumbent who was out of favor with Latinos.

The effort was struck down by the Supreme Court, which judged the resulting dilution of Latino votes a violation of the Voting Rights Act of 1965.

Other trends will also lessen the impact of Latino population growth.  In Arizona, while there has been growth in the Latino population, the share of the electorate that is Latino has declined.

On the other hand, other factors will magnify the impact of Latino population growth.  In the mostly northern states that will be losing representation, Latino population growth combined with the out-migration of non-Latinos will mean a greater share of the electorate will be Latino, and most of those states are controlled by Democratic legislatures.

Finally, superimposed on all of the population shifts is the political shift that, if it continues, will magnify the Latino voice in the immigration debate.  The Republican Party, thanks to the prominence of its extreme voices in the immigration debate, has been driving Latinos into the Democratic camp.

How all of these long-term trends ultimately play out will be something to watch.  One can certainly hope that, if nothing else does, these long-term trends will slowly erode away the logjam in Congress.

Photo by Flickr user Adria Richards.